noc

Boeing (NYSE: BA), an aerospace entity whose colleagues include Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), had a very tough earnings report today. Reading about it is not for the shareholder who cannot stand even the smallest amount of pain. According to this Bloomberg article, Boeing missed estimates and posted a woeful loss because of delays for a couple of jet products.

Boeing lost $2.23 per share in the third quarter. The comparison is pretty tough, because in the similar quarter last year, the company earned 96 cents per share. Boeing was expected to lose somewhere around $2.12 per share, according to Earnings.com. Unfortunately, the guidance for the full fiscal year is pretty bad, too. What once was a range between $4.70 per share and $5.00 per share has now dropped to one with a low of $1.35 per share and a high of $1.55 per share.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Clorox (NYSE: CLX) to Buy from Hold on valuation and believes upside to earnings forecasts is likely. The firm raised its target on shares to $66 from $65.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Buy from Hold on expectations improved Marketplace fundamentals will serve as a positive catalyst for shares. The firm raised its price target on the stock to $29 from $22.
• Roth Capital believes Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is well positioned for improved results and margins. The firm, which upgraded shares to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $22 from $16, said September back-to-school results bode well for the holiday season and demonstrate that Zumiez can drive conversion during peak shopping periods.
• Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) was upgraded to Sell from Conviction Sell at Goldman.
• Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC - option chain) shares are rising today after the company announced last night that it has received new contracts from the US Military. NOC will overhaul the Navy's Theodore Roosevelt, a nuclear-powered carrier, for $2.4 billion. NOC also received a modified $3.44 billion contract from the Air Force to provide services for its B-2 weapon system. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NOC.

NOC opened this morning at $49.52. So far today the stock has hit a low of $48.17 and a high of $49.84. As of 11:40, NOC is trading at $49.16 up 69 cents (1.4%). The chart for NOC looks neutral and S&P gives NOC a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), a defense contractor whose related companies include Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and Boeing (NYSE: BA), posted second-quarter results earlier in the week. The company seems to be performing pretty well, judging by the growth in the stats.

Net sales increased 4%. Okay, that might not sound so robust, but income from continuing operations rose 25% to $1.24 per share. According to Earnings.com, the market was only looking for $1.13 per share from Raytheon. Operating cash flow also looked good, especially once you take into account a timing element related to cash contributions for pension plans.

"Golf has Tiger Woods, novelists have Tom Clancy, and the investment community has stars such as Bruce Berkowitz, Bill Nygren, Charlie Dreifus, and Mario Gabelli," states Paul Tracy.

In his The Street Authority Market Advisor, he suggests, "These money managers are at the pinnacle of their craft." Here, he takes a look at these "celebrities" and some of their current top stock holdings.

"These money managers have all amassed prodigious gains over the years for their shareholders. Over the past few months, these gurus have come out with ringing endorsements for certain stocks. This isn't empty talk -- they are putting their money where their mouth is.

Clearly Sarah Palin, failed Washington aspirations and all, still has her supporters. They like her political positions on abortion, taxes, and gun control (limiting the control that is), to name a few. It just shows how many of us will ignore continuing inappropriate behavior if need be, as long as the end justifies the means.

Now that our political leaders have morphed into celebrities like never before -- doing commercials, late night television, radio, musical and comedic cameos and the like -- it looks like the Sarah Palin show can legitimately be accused of "jumping the shark!" ... and then some.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded HMS Holdings (NASDAQ: HMSY) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe the recent weakness provides an attractive entry point. The firm keeps a $36 price target on shares.
  
• Credit Suisse believes Universal Health (NYSE: UHS) is well positioned to gain market share, that earnings risk from the Las Vegas market is manageable, and that the balance sheet provides flexibility. The firm upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral and raised their target to $48 from $46.
  
• UBS upgraded RF Micro (NASDAQ: RFMD) to Buy from Neutral citing checks that indicate strengthening momentum, impact from recent restructuring, and expected debt reduction. The analyst raised RFMD estimates above consensus and upped the price target to $3 from $1.10.
• Liberty Capital (NASDAQ: LCAPA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  
• Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) was raised to Hold from Sell at Soleil.
  
• SunTrust (NYSE: STI) was lifted at Keefe Bruyette to Outperform from Market Perform.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you need money for anything important in the near future, get it out of the stock market.

Fall back. Fall back to basic principles. What do people have to do whether they want to do it or not? What do governments have to pay for whether they want something or not? What must be used whether you like it or not?

That's where we are right now in the helter-skelter pell-mell race to take all stocks to single digits as the notion of a worldwide global depression sinks in.

Analyst upgrades:

• RW Baird upgraded LHC Group (NASDAQ: LHCG) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and expectations for raised 2009 guidance. The firm has a $36 target on the stock.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Swiss Reinsurance (OTC: SWCEY) to Buy from Hold following the CEO change as the firm views it as a positive move.
  
• Wachovia upgraded DuPont Fabros (NYSE: DFT) to Outperform from Market Perform because it thinks the company has taken major measures to mitigate its liquidity risk by obtaining additional debt. The firm also notes that the company signed several new leases.
• Goldman added Air Products (NYSE: APD) and Burger King (NYSE: BKC) to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• MSC Industrial (NYSE: MSM) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair.
  
• Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) reported a huge Q4 loss on a charge and the economic slowdown.
• Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) fell short of Q4 expectations but announced a dividend increase.
• Carlisle Companies Inc. (NYSE: CSL) Q4 numbers resulted in an analyst's upgrade.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) warned that its earnings would fall well below expectations.
• Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) posted a bigger-than-expected loss and outlined cost cutting plans.
• Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) shares took a hit ahead of its earnings report due to rival Mattel's Q4 results.

Both Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) and Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) Tuesday reported losses in their respective fourth quarters due to large impairment charges.

Los Angeles-based defense contractor Northrop posted a loss of $2.54 billion, or $7.76 per share, compared with a profit of $457 million, or $1.32 per share, in the same period a year earlier. Results were hurt by a $3.06 billion charge related to overestimating the value of past acquisitions in its shipbuilding and space operations.

If you've been watching earnings this past week, or if you read last week's Week in Preview, then this coming week may leave you feeling a bit like Bill Murray in Groundhog's Day. That is, again analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect earnings declines to be more frequent and deeper than earnings gains.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), IAC Interactivecorp (NASDAQ: IACI), Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO), Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), Diebold Inc. (NYSE: DBD), Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT), and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week, and they're all expected to report double-digit declines in earnings.

But again this week, let's take a look who Wall Street feels may have done well in the past quarter.

At long last -- to this Democrat's view anyway -- Barack Obama is the president of the United States. Now, it's time to gaze into our crystal ball.

Obama has many things on his plate, including fixing the economy. Lots of people are trying to pick the winners and losers. Here are my guesses. Keep in mind that it may take several years for the impact of Obama's policies to be felt.

Defense: Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) and Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) will benefit from the spending needed to replace worn-out military equipment from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Obama's push to improve health care technology. The defense contractors over the past few years have become huge government IT contractors and are experts at systems integration. Each have plunged by double-digits over the past year.

Healthy living: Call me an optimist but I expect the Obama administration to push healthier living and for greater control of health care. Hain Celestial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HAIN), the largest provider of organic food, seems a likely beneficiary. Also, it's hard to see how he is going to be able to digitize health care records without the involvement of health insurers such as Cigna Corp. (NYSE: CI). Hain is down 42% over the past 52 weeks, while Cigna has plunged more than 70%.

The question on everybody's mind this week was when will the declines end? Was that the so much talked about capitulation? Have the stock markets bottomed?

Well, I can't answer that, and suffice it to say that many market analysts, fundamental and technical, are still quite gloomy. Pretty much all we can do in this time is hope for flat performance from a few select stocks, which perhaps would yield good returns once the economy starts rebounding and the bear market has completed its course.

Here are some picks and pans from the past week from BloggingStocks contributors:

Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) -- Steven Halpern brought a recommendation from one of The Forbes Wireless Stock Watch advisors, Nikhil Hutheesing. In Hutheesing's words: "In the long run, smart investments today will lead to profits down the road. One of those companies, that I now think looks attractive, is the Canadian maker of the BlackBerry." Not only is RIMM's corporate business strong, it is also working on getting its phones to consumers. In addition, it has lots of cash and little to no long-term debt and great prospects, what the advisor is looking for in addition to value and fundamentals in this environment.

Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is an auto parts supplier. Jamie Dlugosch bets on a bailout for the auto industry here. Today, Lear has a $110 million market capitalization, down from its peak within the last 52 weeks of $2.6 billion. If the bailout finally happens, owners of LEA could benefit greatly.

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC - option chain) shares have moved higher today after with other large defense contractors after President Bush and Defense Secretary Gates recommended that President-elect Obama increase overall defense spending for at least the next five years. This comes just one day after NOC CEO Ron Sugar said that he expects steady spending for at least the next two years. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NOC.

NOC opened this morning at $36.80. So far today the stock has hit a low of $35.24 and a high of $38.05. As of 12:35, NOC is trading at $37.70, up 90 cents (2.4%). The chart for NOC looks bullish and S&P gives NOC a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just one month as long as NOC is above $30 at December expiration. NOC would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.

NOC hasn't been below $35 at all in the past year and has shown support around $35.25 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NOC.